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The weekend is the perfect time to click through previous issues of RAIN by using the blue arrows next to the issue date above. This navigation element has been added retroactively to all of March's issues.




BY KURT HANSON
Those small-market station webcasts that looked so great in the first couple of Arbitron InfoStream webcast ratings reports seem to be declining in Monthly Cume at the rate of about 20% per month, according to the data released by Arbitron last week.

Meanwhile, the few major-market stations that have been consistently in the top 25 Monthly Cumes report seem to be growing slowly but steadily, adding about 10% per month to their cume.

"This first InfoStream Report...clearly indicates that small market broadcast stations are getting a big boost in audience thanks to streaming their programming on the Internet," said an Arbitron spokesperson in its first press release.

However, a mathematical calculation in RAIN last December revealed that this "big boost in audience" actually, in terms of AQH audience size, only consisted of adding, at most, a few dozen listeners to their audiences. And now it looks like even that advantage is beginning to disappear.

The following chart
shows Monthly Cume trends for selected stations that seem to be trending downward. (Click here for a chart showing Monthly Cume trends for all of December's top 25 stations.)


Monthly Cume trends
(selected stations):
Oct.
'99
Nov.
'99
Dec.
'99

www.texasrebelradio.com

Austin AAA
83,900
n/a*
57,800

www.kpig.com

Monterey
AAA
70,200
60,700
56,600

www.cd93.com

Monterey
Mod AC
66,300
59,000
46,600

www.khyi.com

Plano**
Country
56,700
58,100
40,500

www.klaq.com

El Paso
AOR
55,700
52,100
38,300

www.wkpo.com

Madison

Urb A/C

39,000
32,700

22,800

* Texas Rebel Radio and certain other unidentified stations were absent from the November report, apparently due to missing data in their server logs as they switched streaming providers
** The press release says Dallas, but the station is either unrated or has lower than a .4 share in that market.

One thing we don't know, however, is whether these stations' Time Spent Tuning numbers are increasing at a similar rate, which would keep their AQH audience size at least constant. We don't know because Arbitron doesn't release TST figures for 265 of the 290 stations they measured, and none of these stations were on the top-25 list that Arbitron did release.

Meanwhile, Monthly Cumes for many of the larger-market stations that made the top 25 seem to be growing at a respectable rate:

Monthly Cume trends
(selected stations):
Oct.
'99
Nov.
'99
Dec.
'99

www.wplj.com

NYC
Hot AC
21,500
23,500
28,800

www.wabcradio.com

NYC
N/T
23,500
22,700
28,700

www.89xradio.com

Detroit
Alterntve
--
18,900
25,600

www.955klos.com

L.A.
AOR
19,600
21,600
25,500

www.wlsam.com

Chicago

N/T

19,700
20,500

22,400

www.kgoam810.com

San Fran

N/T

19,900
20,800

20,900

www.kabc.com

L.A.

Talk

19,400
22,700

19,600

www.92kqrs.com

MSP

Clsc Rck

19,200
17,200

19,500


Of course, this is a possibly-flawed sample, since we're only able to look at successful (i.e., Top 25) stations. ("Hey, the stations that are doing well are doing well!") However, I've gone back to look at the October's stations, and few big-market stations seemed to have dropped off the list. Thus I think we can safely conclude that those large-market station webcasts that we have access to data on seem to be growing.

So what's going on here?
Well, we speculated last Fall that stations like KFAN, KHYI, and KPIG were doing so well because they were the first stations listed under "Rock" in early versions of RealPlayer. Similarly, I believe that some of the other high-cuming small-market stations also had favorable RealPlayer positionings. (Read full article by clicking here.)

It stands to reason that as consumers convert to newer versions of RealPlayer -- or begin to use other tuners (e.g., Windows Media Player, Hiwire, vTuner, custom station tuners, etc.) -- that the cume-building value of those presets in the old versions is going to decline.

That's my best hypothesis as to what's going on. Does this make sense to you? Or do you have an alternative hypothesis? Contribute your feedback here.



Cume:
Short for "cumulative audience." Counting everybody once, no matter how long they listen.

Monthly cume: Total number of different people (or, technically, in the case of InfoStream webcast ratings, I believe, different audio player ID #s) who listened at least once during the month for at least a moment.

Time Spent Tuning: How many total hours during the month the average person in a webcast's monthly cume spent listening to that webcast.

Average persons: (Also known as "AQH persons" or "Average Quarter Hour persons.") How many people are listening at the average moment. (Thus, if you run one commercial or song at a random/average moment, this statistic tells you about how many people will hear that commercial or song.)




Thanks very much to everyone who helped spread the word about RAIN in Week #1 of the RAIN Viral Marketing Contest. However, we didn't have a winner (see details here), so we're adding another prize to the RAIN Viral Marketing Contest Prize Package and trying again!

This week, you could win both the Sony Music Clip digital music player (pictured below)
and a gorgeous Nextel i1000plus Internet-ready cell phone (pictured at left)!

It's totally packed with features -- including the ability to give you wireless Internet access when Nextel begins that service in some markets next month (see full specs sheet here)...but the best part, in my opinion, is this: It's got an integrated speakerphone.

That means you can use it holding it halfway at arm's length -- exactly like Kirk, Spock, and McCoy used to hold their communicators!   ("Scotty, I need warp power in ten minutes or we'll all dead.")

Here are the rules: You're invited to recommend RAIN to your friends and colleagues. If RAIN gets 100 new "subscribers" this week (i.e., new readers who fill out the "Enjoying reading RAIN?" form below), we'll give away the entire prize package to one lucky winner (chosen randomly from everyone who has sent out an e-mail recommendation to date).  If not, we'll roll over all the entries, add something more to the prize package, and try again next week.


So think of a few people you know who would benefit from knowing about RAIN -- co-workers, subordinates, friendly competitors, clients, vendors, college friends -- and tell them about this fine Web-based daily newsletter. And win!

(Want to write an e-mail to a couple of colleagues right now, but need help composing the e-mail? Click here for some suggested language.)



If you've already recommended RAIN to your colleagues (see list HERE to make sure we've got your name), you really don't have to recommend it to more people, because your name is already in the hat. However, it would be nice if you did.

The deal on the cell phone is that when you buy it (and sign up for service), we'll reimburse you for the cost of the phone (which should be about $200). Or if you don't want to do that, we'll buy you some other cool electronic item in that price range instead.

And the 100 new subscribers have to be legitimate industry-related people. (No stuffing the ballot box with 40 kids from your daughter's 5th grade class! Thank you.)

If you're a new reader to RAIN, we encourage you to fill out the quick, easy-to-fill-out form immediately below:




We appreciate hearing from you. And in return, we'll send you e-mail news updates every so often so you don't forget about us -- plus bulletins when important news breaks.

  Name:
  Company:
  E-mail:

  Your
  comments
  and/or
  suggestions
:

    Please add me to your "subscriber" list
    I'm already on your mailing list; I just wanted to
             send you the comment above.

        Thanks!




More coming soon! Contribute your suggestions here. (Suggestions already in the hopper include CableMusic.com, RadioWoodstock.com, Nerve Radio, Radio Gogaga, and HotCountryHits.)

Miss an issue?
Visit the RAIN News Archives here.



If you'd like an easy-to-read set of tables of the Arbitron InfoStream December 1999 results, they're now available for your viewing here in RAIN. Click here for...

           Top 25 stations in Monthly Cume
           Top 25 stations in Time Spent Tuning
           Side-by-side comparison of the above two lists

           Monthly Cume trends
           Time Spent Tuning trends



To read RAIN's coverage of the release of the first, October 1999 InfoStream report, select from any of the following stories:

  Arbitron: "Johnson City, TX station is America's #1 webcast"
Webcasting increases AQH by 9.7 persons
Readers respond to Webcasting AQH article
How did KFAN become America's #1 webcast?
Actual top-rated webcast in InfoStream: WPLJ
BroadcastMusic.com's avg. webcast AQH: .4 persons

"But what does this MEAN? Can we ignore the Internet now?"
 


 

 

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