March 24, 2000
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From Broadcasting & Cable: "The FCC would have to abandon its low-power FM plans under a measure passed by the House Telecommunications Subcommittee yesterday. While the bill, sponsored by Rep. Michael Oxley (R-Ohio), requires the FCC to vacate its recent decision to create a low-power FM service, the panel was amenable to a compromise from Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) that would have allowed the FCC to offer a six-month trial service in 10 cities and then evaluate whether it caused interference.

"Dingell withdrew his amendment, however, because he did not have adequate support... [Subcommittee Chairman Billy] Tauzin said it was important to move Oxley’s bill quickly to send a message to the FCC that they are 'moving much too expeditiously.'

From Radio & Records: "After nearly seven hours of grueling debate over other measures, the House Commerce Subcommittee wasted little time yesterday in deciding to send Mike Oxley's anti-LPFM 'Radio Preservation Act' to the full House for consideration. To date, 154 co-sponsors have signed on to the bill, a staggering sign of support for a bill introduced just four months ago. The bill picked up even more support this week after the FCC said it would begin LPFM license auctioning on Monday..."

Read the full story in Broadcasting & Cable here, R&R's coverage here (subscription requried), or check RBR for coverage here.
And Radio Ink has an interview with the NAB's Eddie Fritts on the topic here.




BY KURT HANSON
Of the 290 webcasts
streamed by streaming providers that agreed to let Arbitron have access to the server logs required to produce the December 1999 InfoStream webcast ratings, Arbitron has released sufficient information to know the "average persons" audience size of only two of those webcasts.

Here's why: As you may have noticed, Arbitron has had a policy to date of only releasing statistics on the top 25 stations in each of two categories (Monthly Cume and "Time Spent Tuning"). But because you need both statistics to calculate a station's audience size, the stations that are strong enough to appear in both "top 25" lists are the only stations you can calculate an audience size for.

In the November 1999 report, 13 stations made both lists, with AQH audiene sizes ranging from a high of 200 listeners (ABC's "Tom Joyner Show") to a low of 37 listeners (WJR/Detroit). (Click here to view table.)

At any rate, in the December 1999 report that was released this week, only two stations made both top 25 lists. (See side-by-side comparison of those two top-25 lists here.)

December
1999
AQH
ratings
Monthly cume
Time Spent Tuning
(hrs/
mins)
Total hours of listening
AQH*
WPLJ 28,800 3 39 105,120 188
KQRS 19,500 4 27 86,775 156
* = Total hours divided by the number of hours in December, assuming an 18-hour broadcast day (6A-12M). (Multiply by .75 if you want to assume a 24-hour day.)

We don't know precisely
what's been happening to the other 11 stations (or, come to think of it, to the other 288 stations), but both WPLJ and KQRS have been gaining listeners over the past three months:

WPLJ webcast trends:
Oct.
1999
Nov.
1999
Dec.
1999
Monthly cume
21,500
23,500
28,800
times Time Spent Tuning (hours/month)
4.08
3.62
3.65
equals Hours of listening per month
87,784
84,992
105,120
divided by Days in month
31
30
31
equals Hours of listening per day
 2,832
 2,833
3,391
  ====== ====== ======
div. by Hours per day (24-hour day)
24
24
24
equals AQH (24-hour day)
118
118
141
            ...or... ====== ====== ======
div. by Hours per day (18-hour day)
18
18
18
equals AQH (18-hour day)
157
157
188

In WPLJ's case, above, you can see that their cume is growing about 15% per month while their TST has been holding fairly steady. (Note that this chart also explains how I've derived an AQH audience size estimate.)

KQRS webcast trends:
Oct.
1999
Nov.
1999
Dec.
1999
Monthly cume
19,200
17,200
19,500
times Time Spent Tuning (hours/month)
2.67
3.88
4.45
equals Hours of listening per month
51,200
66,793
86,775
divided by Days in month
31
30
31
equals Hours of listening per day
1,652
 2,155
2,799
  ====== ====== ======
div. by Hours per day (24-hour day)
24
24
24
equals AQH (24-hour day)
69
90
117
            ...or... ====== ====== ======
div. by Hours per day (18-hour day)
18
18
18
equals AQH (18-hour day)
92
120
156

In KQRS's case, both cume and TST have been growing consistently for the past two months.

(Realize, however, that in the traditional broadcasting world, all of these are fairly small numbers. Even in the tiniest broadcast markets (e.g., Whitehall, WI), Arbitron's traditional ratings reports round to the nearest hundred persons, so almost all of these stations would appear as "1"s on the P12+ page and zeros everywhere else (i.e., within any demographic subgroup). By comparison, average persons audiences sizes for successful stations in big markets run as high as 100,000 people.)





Cume:
Short for "cumulative audience." Counting everybody once, no matter how long they listen.

Monthly cume: Total number of different people (or, technically, in this case, I believe, different audio player ID #s) who listened at least once during the month for at least a moment.

Time Spent Tuning: How many total hours during the month the average person in a webcast's monthly cume spent listening to that webcast.

Average persons: (Also known as "AQH persons" or "Average Quarter Hour persons.") How many people are listening at the average moment. (Thus, if you run one commercial or one song at a random/average moment, this statistic tells you about how many people will hear that commercial or song.)

Although WPLJ and KQRS both showed growth, many of the top stations in terms of Monthly Cume from previous months showed declines this month. (See chart here.) We'll address that issue tomorrow and/or Monday in RAIN.



RAIN reader Ken Cuccinelli of UDO Entertainment, LLC writes in to ask, "Kurt, how do Web-only broadcasts fit in here?"

The answer is this:
Only two Internet-only webcasters made either of the top 25 lists -- ZDradio.com and 93x.fm -- and they only made the Monthly Cume list. Since all we know about their TST is that it must have been less than 2:20, we can calculate that neither station could have had more than 188 AQH listeners. (This is generously assuming that all their listening occured during the 18-hour broadcast day).

As for all the other Internet-only broadcasters that were in the study (e.g., TheBroadcastWeb's stations, eYada.com, etc.), we know that their Monthly Cume must have been less than 19,500 and their TST must have been less than 2:20. Therefore, their AQH audience size -- at least in December -- could have been no more than 82 listeners per station.

This is true for all of the 240 webcasts
-- Internet-only or otherwise -- that didn't appear in either of the top 25 lists: They mathematically could have been no more than 82 listeners at the average moment in December.



"I have some insight into the numbers that get reported to Arbitron..."
                         -- Stew Chapin, Activate.net

March 23, 2000
4:08:42 PM

Kurt -- Saw your article today re the latest Arb numbers. Running like crazy today, no time for details, but...

With Activate the streamer for 15 of the top 26 stations on that list, representing some 65% of the sum-of-cumes of those top 26 (ie, not deduped for exclusive cume, etc, just adding up the numbers in the column), I have some insight into the numbers that get reported to Arbitron. So, in my best "Carnac the Magnificent" prediction of the future, I predict that:

> The total cume in aggregate reported for Jan will be higher -- cume for some of these stations, dramatically so

> The totals reported for Feb will be more mixed -- some will be up, some will make Jan look like the old "good bounce" and Feb slightly lower.

My point being, don't speculate too hard re a long-term trend -- numbers don't support it. I won't break out specifics by station, but the GMs of the stations we stream have access to data that, while tabulated differently than Arbitron, give them a pretty good indication.

With less certainty, I predict:

> Cume reporting will grow increasingly problematic -- possibly tending to underreport -- with Real's drop of the GUID reporting in the logfiles, which helped identify unique users. To the extent that logfiles capture only IP address, it becomes real tricky to get a good fix on cume.

Gotta run, I'll check back later.


 
"Looking forward to being able to look back..."
                     -- Scott Carty, KPLZ/KVI/KOMO/Seattle
March 24, 2000
3:26:47 PM
Following Stew Chapin's comments...

Not every station is streaming yet. Many of those that are, aren't giving their streams any solid promotion--especially in comparison to the way we promote our dial positions--and they're not yet reporting any numbers. Finally--as I proved with a listener trying to "hear" our launch of KOMORadio.com on Wednesday--a lot of listeners don't understand streaming and they don't even have speakers connected to their computers yet.

The numbers we see--as exciting as they are to help us all sound like we know what we're talking about--are only scratching the surface.

Using Activate's reporting (I just launched STAR1015.com, 570KVI.com and KOMORadio.com with them this week) I have reason to believe we'll all be pleasantly surprised within a year.

"Look forward to being able to look back." -- Scott Carty
 

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If you'd like an easy-to-read set of tables of the Arbitron InfoStream December 1999 results, they're now available for your viewing here in RAIN. Click here for...

           Top 25 stations in Monthly Cume
           Top 25 stations in Time Spent Tuning
           Side-by-side comparison of the above two lists

           Monthly Cume trends
           Time Spent Tuning trends



Thanks very much to everyone who helped spread the word about RAIN in Week #1 of the RAIN Viral Marketing Contest. However, we didn't have a winner (see details here), so we're going to add another prize to the RAIN Viral Marketing Contest Prize Package and try again!

This week, you could win both the Sony Music Clip digital music player (pictured below)
and a gorgeous Nextel i1000plus Internet-ready cell phone (pictured at left)!

It's totally packed with features -- including the ability to give you wireless Internet access when Nextel begins that service in some markets next month (see full specs sheet here)...but the best part, in my opinion, is this: It's got an integrated speakerphone.

That means you can use it holding it halfway at arm's length -- exactly like Kirk, Spock, and McCoy used to hold their communicators!   ("Scotty, I need warp power in ten minutes or we'll all dead.")

So, here once again are the rules: You're invited to recommend RAIN to your friends and colleagues. If RAIN gets 100 new "subscribers" this week (i.e., new readers who fill out the "Enjoying reading RAIN?" form above), we'll give away the entire prize package to one lucky winner (chosen randomly from everyone who has sent out an e-mail recommendation to date).  If not, we'll roll over all the entries, add something more to the prize package, and try again next week.


So think of a few people you know who would benefit from knowing about RAIN -- co-workers, subordinates, friendly competitors, clients, vendors, college friends -- and tell them about this fine Web-based daily newsletter. And win!

(Want to write an e-mail to a couple of colleagues right now, but need help composing the e-mail? Click here for some suggested language.)


If you've already recommended RAIN to your colleagues (see list HERE to make sure we've got your name), you really don't have to recommend it to more people, because your name is already in the hat. However, it would be nice if you did.

The deal on the cell phone is that when you buy it (and sign up for service), we'll reimburse you for the cost of the phone (which should be about $200). Or if you don't want to do that, we'll buy you some other cool electronic item in that price range instead.

And the 100 new subscribers have to be legitimate industry-related people. (No stuffing the ballot box with 40 kids from your daughter's 5th grade class! Thank you.)



More coming soon! Contribute your suggestions here. (Suggestions already in the hopper include CableMusic.com, RadioWoodstock.com, Nerve Radio, Radio Gogaga, and HotCountryHits.)

Miss an issue?
Visit the RAIN News Archives here.


To read RAIN's coverage of the release of the first, October 1999 InfoStream report, select from any of the following stories:

  Arbitron: "Johnson City, TX station is America's #1 webcast"
Webcasting increases AQH by 9.7 persons
Readers respond to Webcasting AQH article
How did KFAN become America's #1 webcast?
Actual top-rated webcast in InfoStream: WPLJ
BroadcastMusic.com's avg. webcast AQH: .4 persons

"But what does this MEAN? Can we ignore the Internet now?"
 


Now you can easily click through previous issues of RAIN by using the blue arrows to the left and right of the issue date above. This navigation element has been added retroactively to all of March's issues.

 

 

.
===================
 
  R&R
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If you are a vendor and would like to know more about sponsoring a button and link in this guide, please call RAIN at 773-656-5878 or send an e-mail HERE.
     
 
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