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From PR Newswire: DiscJockey.com announced today that George
Taylor Morris has joined the firm as the new Vice President
of Content and Music Programming. "We are thrilled to
have someone of George Taylor Morris's caliber at the helm of programming
during our expansion," said Richard Chadwick, Founder and
President of DiscJockey.com. "He brings a wealth of knowledge, talent
and industry respect to the position."
Morris, a veteran programmer of FM radio stations and radio syndication
outlets, said, "With 130 active channels, DiscJockey.com is in the
forefront of web radiocasting. The challenge is to shepherd the
expansion of at least one hundred more formats and channels to reach
the ever-widening audience that our broadband multimedia reaches."
Morris was most recently the Program Director of Boston's Adult
Alternative station, WBOS-FM. Before that he was at CBS-owned WZLX,
Boston, as Assistant Program Director and midday air personality.
Morris is also the host/producer of the long-running AMFM syndicated
Classic Rock staple, "Reelin' In The Years", developed while he
was VP/Programming at Global Satellite Network in Los Angeles.
DiscJockey.com, Inc., incorporated in 1999 and headquartered
in Salem, Massachusetts, is a leading broadcaster of originally
programmed audio entertainment over the Internet...
In
February, approximately one million unique listeners accessed DiscJockey.com's
130 channels of music and information, 24 hours a day, 7 days a
week. These users typically spent more than 30 minutes per visit.
Music enthusiasts connect to the site, select their favorite musical
genre, such as Current Hits, Rock/Pop, Country and Folk, and Classical,
and select their favorite decade for that music.
Read the full press release here
or visit DiscJockey.com here.
(To look at their channel guide for advertisers, which is a bit
more understandable than their channel guide for listeners, click
here.)
And of course your comments about DiscJockey.com (its programming,
site design, self-reported audience size statistics, and/or business
model) are invited -- click here
to contribute your feedback.
Reprinted from yesterday's late-afternoon
edition:

BY
KURT HANSON
Most radio stations' Web simulcasts
apparently have not-very-impressive ratings -- it seems that typically
they have 10 to 100 listeners at any given moment, compared to 100
to 500 times that many listeners listening to the corresponding
over-the-air signal. As a result, one of the big questions among
RAIN readers right now is this: How big are the audience
sizes for the Internet-only multi-channel webcasters?
We're curious to know whether the multi-channel music services
like SonicNet and Spinner
and NetRadio and DiscJockey.com
actually have huge audiences...or not. Is that where lots of the
Internet radio listeners are going? Or are those operations similarly
light in listenership?
You can't get the answer by looking at the Web usage estimates produced
by firms like MediaMetrix and PC Data, for the following two reasons,
according to NetRadio's Dave Witzig:
(1) Those firms are having trouble measuring at-work Internet
usage, which seems to be Internet audio's best daypart. As a result,
they could very well be underreporting true usage.
(2) Their services are designed to track HTML page viewing,
not audio stream listening. In other words, they're measuring
the wrong thing. (Remember, it's possible to listen to Internet
audio without going through a website at all, either via RealPlayer
or Windows Media Player presets or a third-party tuner like Hiwire
or vTuner.)
But there's a tantalizing hint about the size of the multi-channel
Internet-only broadcasters' audiences that was provided by NetRadio
in their S-1 filing and quoted in a recent Minneapolis Star-Tribune
article (here):
Citing internal numbers as audited by iPro
(a web traffic auditing company affiliated with Nielsen Media Research),
NetRadio claimed an audience of 1.3 million unique visitors
per month in the fourth quarter of 1999 -- the Star-Tribune article
misqoted this number, to NetRadio's detriment, by dropping the phrase
"per month" -- and, according to the newspaper article,
"they were online for an average of 90 minutes."
Wow! Sounds great! To the casual reader of those numbers,
it sounds as if NetRadio's listenership would be as follows
| What's
NetRadio's AQH audience size?* |
| Unique
visitors per month |
1,300,000
|
|
Hours
per unique visitor per day (90 min.)
|
x
1.5
|
|
Days
per month
|
x
30
|
| Total
hours of NetRadio listening per month |
=
58,500,000
|
| Days
per month |
/
30
|
| Total
hours of NetRadio listening per day |
=
1,950,000
|
| Hours
per day (6A-12M)** |
/
18
|
| NetRadio
AQH audience size
|
=
108,333
|
| **
Note: This analysis is WRONG. It uses bad math, as I'll explain
shortly. |
| **
I'm generously assuming all listening occurs during the standard
"broadcast day." You could use a 24-hour day here
if you prefer; the AQH number would go down by 33%. |
Wow, that's
huge! That's an audience that looks like it's many times bigger
than all the 200+ stations in the InfoStream report combined! The
casual reader is very impressed!
However, the casual reader is wrong. He's doing bad math. I believe
I've established that the "Hours per unique visitor per day"
statistic quoted above is based on a single day's visitors.
You can't take the two numbers that NetRadio provides and multiply
them by one another -- because they don't match up. (One statistic
is based on their monthly cume, but the other is based on their
daily cume.)
Here's an analogy:
Ask me how old I am and I might say, "Okay, well, uh, my
brother's 27. Got that? 27. Say, that's a nice necktie!
Where'd you get it? Where were we? Oh, yes: 27. And, I'm
two years older than my sister."
The casual listener might walk
away thinking that I'm 29. However, the casual listener would
be wrong (see photo at right). Why? Because the two numbers
I've quoted don't match up.(The first statistic I quoted referred
to one person and the second referred to another.)
The truth is that you can't tell my age from the information
I provided. It's impossible. You need to know one more fact
-- either (A) how much older my sister is than my brother, or
(B) how much older I am than my brother, or (C) how old my sister
is.
|
Similarly,
you can't tell NetRadio's audience size from the information they
chose to provide in their S-1. You need to know one more fact.
You need to know either (A) the number of days visited
per month per monthly unique visitor, or (B) hours of listening
per month per monthly unique visitor, or (C) number of unique
visitors per day.
Witzig says that because NetRadio is a public company, he can't
quote any other audience size numbers (i.e., those that they didn't
put in the S-1).
But what we CAN do is plug in a guess. My experience (which
includes seeing some data from other webcasters) tells me that many
of those 1.3 million monthly cumers are probably one-time visitors,
many are semi-regulars, and a certain percentage are loyalists --
and that it possibly averages out to maybe about three or four visits
per month per person. Approximately. So, let's plug those two estimates
into a table to give us a range:
| What's
NetRadio's AQH audience size? |
| Unique
visitors per month |
1,300,000
|
1,300,000
|
| Days
each visitor vists per month (MY GUESS) |
3
|
4
|
| Unique
visitors per day (Line
1 x (Line 2 / 30)) |
130,000
|
173,333
|
|
Hours
per unique visitor per day
|
x
1.5
|
x
1.5
|
| Total
hours of NetRadio listening per day |
=
195,000
|
=
260,000
|
| Hours
per day (6A-12M)* |
/
18
|
/
18
|
| Estimated
NetRadio AQH audience size |
=
10,833
|
=
14,444
|
| *
I'm generously assuming all listening occurs during the standard
"broadcast day." You could use a 24-hour day here
if you prefer; the AQH number would go down by 33%. |
My guess puts
their actual AQH audience size somewhere in the range of around
11,000 to 14,000 AQH persons. (It makes sense that the audience
estimate in the first column is 1/10 the size of our original calculation,
because we are now assuming that the monthly cumers are visiting
3 days per month instead of 30 days per month.)
(Overall, does this make sense, though? Would NetRadio have enough
server capacity to handle that many listeners -- and, of course,
even more during peak hours? I don't know that answer to that. If
you have a grasp on that subject, please e-mail me here.)
In any event, the total I came up with is about the audience
size of a .4-share station in New York City. Perhaps not
stunning, but not horrible either. (And of course NetRadio has a
lot more potential for growth than a bottom-rated New York station.)
But now let's add in one more factor: NetRadio's audience is divided
up among 120 different music channels.
| What's
NetRadio's average AQH per channel?* |
| Estimated
NetRadio AQH audience size* |
10,833
|
14,444
|
|
Number
of music channels
|
/
120
|
/
120
|
| Estimated
AQH per music channel |
=
90
|
=
120
|
| *
Based on my GUESS about days visited per month per monthly cumer |
Compared to
a large-market broadcast station, that's a pretty small AQH audience
per channel -- but compared to a large-market broadcast station's
webcast, it's pretty good. And of course NetRadio has 120
such channels.
But is it a good business?
Even if NetRadio currently has an audience size only equal to a
.4 share station in New York City, however, could it be a
good business? I believe so.
Here's why: I've heard it estimated that someday targeted
audio ads may sell to advertisers for as much as $100 CPMs (i.e.,
ten cents per listener). Even if you only have 14,000 AQH listeners,
multiply that many listeners times several spots per hour
times 18 hours per day times 365 days per year times
ten cents per spot, and you end up with real money -- potentially
tens of millions of dollars.
However, note that this potential is not immediately realizable.
The Star-Tribune article said that NetRadio actually had only $1.4
million in revenues in 1999, with half of that coming
from CD sales. (That was on expenses of about $16 million, according
to the article.)
But, on the other other hand, of course, one could assume that listening
to Internet radio will grow significantly in the future. (And
RAIN will be keeping an eye on that point.)
Does this analysis make sense? Do you see any interesting implications?
Send us your feedback here.
More
coming soon! Contribute your suggestions here.
(Suggestions already in the hopper include RadioWoodstock.com, Nerve
Radio, Radio Gogaga, and HotCountryHits.)

RAIN has returned
to America from a
week in Tokyo, where we were reporting to you on the latest in home
electronics, wireless Internet (via cell phone), station website ideas,
and more.
If you missed any of RAIN's coverage, you can access it via the
links below. (Each day's issue included two or three stories from
Japan; the issue's lead headine is described below.)
Fri
3/3
Weekend
Mon 3/6
Tue 3/7
Wed 3/8
Thu 3/9
Fri 3/10 |
Net-enabled
Sony PlayStation2 debuts in Japan this weekend
Preview of stories-in-progress from Tokyo
PlayStation2
launched in Japan; Internet access coming soon
Tokyo morning man Jon Kabira launches own forum Website
Wireless Internet taking off in Japan...but not Internet
audio
Internet radio sites in Japan featured archived music
excerpts
Broadband (ISDN) in Japan being marketed with pop stars
|
Complete RAIN
News Archives here.
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